Probabilistic forecast for major football leagues
| Team | Elo Rating | League Top 8 (%) |
Knockout Round (%) | Round of 16 (%) | Quarterfinal (%) | Semifinal (%) | Final (%) | Champion (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal 18 pts | 2052 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 84 | 66 | 47 | 30 |
| Bayern Munich 15 pts | 1998 | 99 | 100 | 100 | 77 | 53 | 33 | 17 |
| Manchester City 13 pts | 1983 | 90 | 100 | 99 | 72 | 45 | 24 | 12 |
| Paris Saint-Germain 13 pts | 1969 | 79 | 100 | 97 | 67 | 40 | 21 | 10 |
| Barcelona 10 pts | 1949 | 40 | 100 | 89 | 54 | 28 | 14 | 7 |
| Liverpool 12 pts | 1941 | 68 | 100 | 94 | 60 | 30 | 14 | 6 |
| Inter 12 pts | 1928 | 41 | 100 | 87 | 49 | 23 | 10 | 4 |
| Real Madrid 12 pts | 1917 | 62 | 100 | 91 | 53 | 24 | 10 | 4 |
| Atlético Madrid 12 pts | 1871 | 56 | 100 | 87 | 42 | 15 | 5 | 2 |
| Chelsea 10 pts | 1883 | 25 | 100 | 79 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 2 |
| Dortmund 11 pts | 1864 | 23 | 100 | 74 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| Newcastle United 10 pts | 1876 | 11 | 100 | 70 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| Atalanta 13 pts | 1816 | 65 | 100 | 87 | 35 | 10 | 2 | 1 |
| Leverkusen 9 pts | 1837 | 2 | 98 | 54 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur 11 pts | 1804 | 22 | 100 | 67 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Sporting CP 10 pts | 1821 | 10 | 100 | 59 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Juventus 9 pts | 1819 | 3 | 99 | 54 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Napoli 7 pts | 1822 | 0 | 76 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| PSV 8 pts | 1808 | 0 | 86 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Marseille 9 pts | 1765 | 3 | 98 | 39 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Benfica 6 pts | 1807 | 0 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Galatasaray 9 pts | 1719 | 0 | 94 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Monaco 9 pts | 1701 | 1 | 94 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Club Brugge 4 pts | 1716 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Athletic Club 5 pts | 1711 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 4 pts | 1724 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Union SG 6 pts | 1699 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Olympiacos 5 pts | 1681 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Copenhagen 7 pts | 1596 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Qarabağ 7 pts | 1546 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pafos FC 6 pts | 1551 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slavia Prague 3 pts | 1684 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ajax 3 pts | 1603 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Villarreal 1 pts | 1778 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bodø/Glimt 3 pts | 1649 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Kairat 1 pts | 1300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last Updated: 2026-01-17 10:01 UTC
Upcoming Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | Olympiacos | Leverkusen |
| 2026-01-20 | Tottenham Hotspur | Dortmund |
| 2026-01-20 | Sporting CP | Paris Saint-Germain |
| 2026-01-20 | Bodø/Glimt | Manchester City |
| 2026-01-20 | FC Copenhagen | Napoli |
| 2026-01-20 | Inter | Arsenal |
| 2026-01-20 | Villarreal | Ajax |
| 2026-01-20 | Real Madrid | Monaco |
| 2026-01-20 | FC Kairat | Club Brugge |
| 2026-01-21 | Bayern Munich | Union SG |
| 2026-01-21 | Marseille | Liverpool |
| 2026-01-21 | Slavia Prague | Barcelona |
| 2026-01-21 | Qarabağ | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 2026-01-21 | Galatasaray | Atlético Madrid |
| 2026-01-21 | Chelsea | Pafos FC |
| 2026-01-21 | Newcastle United | PSV |
| 2026-01-21 | Atalanta | Athletic Club |
| 2026-01-21 | Juventus | Benfica |
| 2026-01-28 | Arsenal | FC Kairat |
| 2026-01-28 | Pafos FC | Slavia Prague |