Probabilistic forecast for major football leagues
| Team | Elo Rating | League Top 8 (%) |
Knockout Round (%) | Round of 16 (%) | Quarterfinal (%) | Semifinal (%) | Final (%) | Champion (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace 10 pts | 1800 | 0 | 100 | 99 | 82 | 62 | 53 | 39 |
| Strasbourg 16 pts | 1699 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 76 | 45 | 33 | 17 |
| Rayo Vallecano 13 pts | 1640 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 81 | 52 | 22 | 10 |
| Mainz 05 13 pts | 1658 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 58 | 34 | 21 | 9 |
| AEK Athens 13 pts | 1601 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 71 | 40 | 15 | 6 |
| Fiorentina 9 pts | 1658 | 0 | 100 | 77 | 43 | 13 | 8 | 5 |
| Sparta Prague 13 pts | 1574 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 68 | 35 | 12 | 4 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 13 pts | 1544 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 67 | 31 | 9 | 3 |
| Raków 14 pts | 1549 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 52 | 19 | 8 | 3 |
| AZ Alkmaar 10 pts | 1563 | 0 | 100 | 90 | 40 | 20 | 4 | 2 |
| AEK Larnaca FC 12 pts | 1501 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
| Lech Poznań 10 pts | 1507 | 0 | 100 | 83 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 1 |
| AC Omonia 8 pts | 1485 | 0 | 100 | 67 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 |
| Samsunspor 10 pts | 1444 | 0 | 100 | 83 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| NK Celje 10 pts | 1439 | 0 | 100 | 82 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Lausanne-Sport 11 pts | 1427 | 0 | 100 | 60 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Jagiellonia 9 pts | 1508 | 0 | 100 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sigma Olomouc 7 pts | 1374 | 0 | 100 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rijeka 9 pts | 1402 | 0 | 100 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KuPS 7 pts | 1306 | 0 | 100 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KF Drita 8 pts | 1251 | 0 | 100 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FK Shkëndija 7 pts | 1242 | 0 | 100 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FC Noah 8 pts | 1301 | 0 | 100 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zrinjski Mostar 7 pts | 1284 | 0 | 100 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CS U Craiova 7 pts | 1455 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Legia Warsaw 6 pts | 1425 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dynamo Kyiv 6 pts | 1419 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BK Häcken 3 pts | 1373 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Slovan Bratislava 6 pts | 1367 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rapid Wien 1 pts | 1347 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamrock Rovers 4 pts | 1313 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aberdeen 2 pts | 1286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelbourne FC 2 pts | 1241 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Breiðablik 5 pts | 1231 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ħamrun Spartans FC 3 pts | 1117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lincoln Red Imps FC 7 pts | 1065 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last Updated: 2026-01-17 10:10 UTC
Upcoming Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | Zrinjski Mostar | Crystal Palace |
| 2026-02-19 | FC Noah | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2026-02-19 | FK Shkëndija | Samsunspor |
| 2026-02-19 | AC Omonia | Rijeka |
| 2026-02-19 | Sigma Olomouc | Lausanne-Sport |
| 2026-02-19 | KF Drita | NK Celje |
| 2026-02-19 | KuPS | Lech Poznań |
| 2026-02-19 | Jagiellonia | Fiorentina |
| 2026-02-26 | Lausanne-Sport | Sigma Olomouc |
| 2026-02-26 | NK Celje | KF Drita |
| 2026-02-26 | Crystal Palace | Zrinjski Mostar |
| 2026-02-26 | AZ Alkmaar | FC Noah |
| 2026-02-26 | Rijeka | AC Omonia |
| 2026-02-26 | Samsunspor | FK Shkëndija |
| 2026-02-26 | Fiorentina | Jagiellonia |
| 2026-02-26 | Lech Poznań | KuPS |