Probabilistic forecast for major football leagues
| Team | Elo Rating | League Top 8 (%) |
Knockout Round (%) | Round of 16 (%) | Quarterfinal (%) | Semifinal (%) | Final (%) | Champion (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa 15 pts | 1924 | 98 | 100 | 100 | 87 | 71 | 58 | 42 |
| Roma 12 pts | 1809 | 43 | 100 | 92 | 62 | 38 | 22 | 11 |
| Porto 13 pts | 1777 | 70 | 100 | 95 | 62 | 34 | 17 | 7 |
| Lyon 15 pts | 1752 | 96 | 100 | 99 | 65 | 34 | 15 | 6 |
| Stuttgart 12 pts | 1770 | 44 | 100 | 90 | 56 | 29 | 14 | 6 |
| Nottingham Forest 11 pts | 1767 | 29 | 100 | 87 | 52 | 28 | 14 | 6 |
| Real Betis 14 pts | 1752 | 81 | 100 | 97 | 61 | 31 | 14 | 5 |
| Bologna 11 pts | 1740 | 39 | 100 | 86 | 48 | 23 | 10 | 4 |
| Freiburg 14 pts | 1718 | 83 | 100 | 96 | 54 | 23 | 8 | 3 |
| Lille 9 pts | 1744 | 1 | 98 | 69 | 34 | 16 | 7 | 3 |
| Midtjylland 15 pts | 1679 | 93 | 100 | 98 | 52 | 20 | 6 | 2 |
| Celta Vigo 9 pts | 1708 | 1 | 98 | 65 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| Fenerbahçe 11 pts | 1703 | 12 | 100 | 74 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 2 |
| Braga 13 pts | 1673 | 51 | 100 | 85 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
| PAOK 9 pts | 1610 | 0 | 95 | 42 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Ferencváros 14 pts | 1532 | 45 | 100 | 70 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Genk 10 pts | 1576 | 5 | 100 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Viktoria Plzeň 10 pts | 1566 | 5 | 100 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Red Star 10 pts | 1564 | 2 | 100 | 40 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Panathinaikos 10 pts | 1541 | 3 | 100 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brann 8 pts | 1523 | 0 | 78 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Celtic 7 pts | 1549 | 0 | 54 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dinamo Zagreb 7 pts | 1523 | 0 | 59 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Basel 6 pts | 1513 | 0 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Young Boys 9 pts | 1473 | 0 | 67 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ludogorets Razgrad 7 pts | 1453 | 0 | 51 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FCSB 6 pts | 1458 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Go Ahead Eagles 6 pts | 1445 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Feyenoord 3 pts | 1619 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sturm Graz 4 pts | 1449 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nice 0 pts | 1602 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rangers 1 pts | 1533 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Utrecht 1 pts | 1521 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RB Salzburg 3 pts | 1500 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malmö 1 pts | 1445 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv FC 1 pts | 1440 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last Updated: 2026-01-17 10:06 UTC
Upcoming Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | Braga | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-01-22 | RB Salzburg | Basel |
| 2026-01-22 | Ferencváros | Panathinaikos |
| 2026-01-22 | Nice | Go Ahead Eagles |
| 2026-01-22 | Utrecht | Genk |
| 2026-01-22 | Roma | Stuttgart |
| 2026-01-22 | Celta Vigo | Lille |
| 2026-01-22 | Dinamo Zagreb | FCSB |
| 2026-01-22 | Fenerbahçe | Aston Villa |
| 2026-01-22 | Rangers | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 2026-01-22 | PAOK | Real Betis |
| 2026-01-22 | Brann | Midtjylland |
| 2026-01-22 | Young Boys | Lyon |
| 2026-01-22 | Viktoria Plzeň | Porto |
| 2026-01-22 | Freiburg | Maccabi Tel Aviv FC |
| 2026-01-22 | Bologna | Celtic |
| 2026-01-22 | Feyenoord | Sturm Graz |
| 2026-01-22 | Malmö | Red Star |
| 2026-01-29 | Celtic | Utrecht |
| 2026-01-29 | Ludogorets Razgrad | Nice |